Language Models Exhibit Systematic Certainty Inflation Bias, Particularly in Rewriting Tasks
This research quantifies "certainty distortion" in language models (LMs), where the expressed certainty of a statement changes despite preserved semantic content. Findings indicate a prevalent bias toward increasing certainty, affecting up to 75% of LM outputs and being systematically asymmetric in rewriting tasks. This distortion can compound with repeated paraphrasing, posing risks in high-stakes domains like scientific and medical communication due to a general inflation of expressed confidence.